{"about":{"site":"https://codewithpapers.app","non_affiliation":"Code with Papers and Syntology are not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by Papers with Code, Meta, or the pwc-archive mirror.","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0","licence_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/legalcode","attribution":"https://codewithpapers.app/attribution","modified":"archive material modified by Syntology; see the attribution page"},"url":"/paper/purported-quantitative-support-for-multiple","title":"Purported quantitative support for multiple introductions of SARS-CoV-2 into humans is an artefact of an imbalanced hypothesis testing framework","arxiv_id":"2502.20076","date":"2025-02-27","proceeding":null,"authors":["Angus McCowan"],"abstract":"A prominent report claimed substantial support for two introductions of SARS-CoV-2 into humans using a calculation that combined phylodynamic inferences and epidemic models. Inspection of the calculation identifies an imbalance in the hypothesis testing framework that confounds this result; the single-introduction model was tested against more stringent conditions than the two-introduction model. Here, I show that when the two-introduction model is tested against the same conditions, the support disappears.","url_abs":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2502.20076v2","url_pdf":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2502.20076v2.pdf","source":{"archive":"pwc-archive (Hugging Face), CC BY-SA 4.0","snapshot":"2025-07-28","licence_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/legalcode","row_kind":"abstracts"},"code_links":[{"paper_slug":"purported-quantitative-support-for-multiple","repo_url":"https://github.com/nizzaneela/re-multi-introductions","is_official":1,"mentioned_in_paper":0,"mentioned_in_github":0,"framework":"none","reach":null}],"tasks":[],"methods":[],"datasets_introduced":[],"methods_introduced":[],"results":[],"syntology":{"atlas_url":null,"mcp":null,"developers":"https://syntology.ai/developers"},"arxiv_metadata":null,"syntology_extracted_results":null}