{"about":{"site":"https://codewithpapers.app","non_affiliation":"Code with Papers and Syntology are not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by Papers with Code, Meta, or the pwc-archive mirror.","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0","licence_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/legalcode","attribution":"https://codewithpapers.app/attribution","modified":"archive material modified by Syntology; see the attribution page"},"url":"/paper/predictions-of-planet-detections-with-near","title":"Predictions of planet detections with near infrared radial velocities in the up-coming SPIRou Legacy Survey-Planet Search","arxiv_id":"1712.06673","date":"2017-12-18","proceeding":null,"authors":["Ryan Cloutier","Étienne Artigau","Xavier Delfosse","Lison Malo","Claire Moutou","René Doyon","Jean-Francois Donati","Andrew Cumming","Xavier Dumusque","Élodie Hébrard","Kristen Menou"],"abstract":"The SPIRou near infrared spectro-polarimeter is destined to begin science operations at the Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope in mid-2018. One of the instrument's primary science goals is to discover the closest exoplanets to the Solar System by conducting a 3-5 year long radial velocity survey of nearby M dwarfs at an expected precision of $\\sim 1$ m s$^{-1}$; the SPIRou Legacy Survey-Planet Search (SLS-PS). In this study we conduct a detailed Monte-Carlo simulation of the SLS-PS using our current understanding of the occurrence rate of M dwarf planetary systems and physical models of stellar activity. From simultaneous modelling of planetary signals and activity, we predict the population of planets detected in the SLS-PS. With our fiducial survey strategy and expected instrument performance over a nominal survey length of $\\sim 3$ years, we expect SPIRou to detect $85.3^{+29.3}_{-12.4}$ planets including $20.0^{+16.8}_{-7.2}$ habitable zone planets and $8.1^{+7.6}_{-3.2}$ Earth-like planets from a sample of 100 M1-M8.5 dwarfs out to 11 pc. By studying mid-to-late M dwarfs previously inaccessible to existing optical velocimeters, SPIRou will put meaningful constraints on the occurrence rate of planets around those stars including the value of $\\eta_{\\oplus}$ at an expected level of precision of $\\lesssim 45$%. We also predict a subset of $46.7^{+16.0}_{-6.0}$ planets may be accessible with dedicated high-contrast imagers on the next generation of ELTs including $4.9^{+4.7}_{-2.0}$ potentially imagable Earth-like planets. Lastly, we compare the results of our fiducial survey strategy to other foreseeable survey versions to quantify which strategy is optimized to reach the SLS-PS science goals. The results of our simulations are made available to the community on github.","url_abs":"http://arxiv.org/abs/1712.06673v1","url_pdf":"http://arxiv.org/pdf/1712.06673v1.pdf","source":{"archive":"pwc-archive (Hugging Face), CC BY-SA 4.0","snapshot":"2025-07-28","licence_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/legalcode","row_kind":"links_only","authors_date_abstract":"arXiv metadata, CC0 1.0 (https://info.arxiv.org/help/license), from the Kaggle arXiv metadata snapshot of 2026-09-12"},"code_links":[{"paper_slug":"predictions-of-planet-detections-with-near","repo_url":"https://github.com/r-cloutier/SLSPS_Simulations","is_official":1,"mentioned_in_paper":1,"mentioned_in_github":1,"framework":"none","reach":null}],"tasks":[],"methods":[],"datasets_introduced":[],"methods_introduced":[],"results":[],"syntology":{"syntology_url":null,"atlas_url":null,"mcp":null,"developers":"https://syntology.ai/developers"},"arxiv_metadata":null,"syntology_extracted_results":null}