{"about":{"site":"https://codewithpapers.app","non_affiliation":"Code with Papers and Syntology are not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by Papers with Code, Meta, or the pwc-archive mirror.","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0","licence_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/legalcode","attribution":"https://codewithpapers.app/attribution","modified":"archive material modified by Syntology; see the attribution page"},"url":"/paper/planning-a-return-to-normal-after-the-covid","title":"Planning a Return to Normal after the COVID-19 Pandemic: Identifying Safe Contact Levels via Online Optimization","arxiv_id":"2109.06025","date":"2021-09-13","proceeding":null,"authors":["Gianluca Bianchin","Emiliano Dall'Anese","Jorge I. Poveda","David Jacobson","Elizabeth J. Carlton","Andrea G. Buchwald"],"abstract":"Since the early months of 2020, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) -- implemented at varying levels of severity and based on widely-divergent perspectives of risk tolerance -- have been the primary means to control SARS-CoV-2 transmission. We seek to identify how risk tolerance and vaccination rates impact the rate at which a population can return to pre-pandemic contact behavior. To this end, we develop a novel feedback control method for data-driven decision-making to identify optimal levels of NPIs across geographical regions in order to guarantee that hospitalizations will not exceed a given risk tolerance. Results are shown for the state of Colorado, and they suggest that: coordination in decision-making across regions is essential to maintain the daily number of hospitalizations below the desired limits; increasing risk tolerance can decrease the number of days required to discontinue NPIs, at the cost of an increased number of deaths; and if vaccination uptake is less than 70\\%, at most levels of risk tolerance, return to pre-pandemic contact behaviors before the early months of 2022 may newly jeopardize the healthcare system.","url_abs":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2109.06025v1","url_pdf":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2109.06025v1.pdf","source":{"archive":"pwc-archive (Hugging Face), CC BY-SA 4.0","snapshot":"2025-07-28","licence_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/legalcode","row_kind":"links_only","authors_date_abstract":"arXiv metadata, CC0 1.0 (https://info.arxiv.org/help/license), from the Kaggle arXiv metadata snapshot of 2026-09-12"},"code_links":[{"paper_slug":"planning-a-return-to-normal-after-the-covid","repo_url":"https://github.com/gianlucabi/safe_levels_npis","is_official":1,"mentioned_in_paper":1,"mentioned_in_github":0,"framework":"none","reach":null}],"tasks":[],"methods":[],"datasets_introduced":[],"methods_introduced":[],"results":[],"syntology":{"syntology_url":null,"atlas_url":null,"mcp":null,"developers":"https://syntology.ai/developers"},"arxiv_metadata":null,"syntology_extracted_results":null}