{"about":{"site":"https://codewithpapers.app","non_affiliation":"Code with Papers and Syntology are not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by Papers with Code, Meta, or the pwc-archive mirror.","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0","licence_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/legalcode","attribution":"https://codewithpapers.app/attribution","modified":"archive material modified by Syntology; see the attribution page"},"url":"/paper/on-the-expected-size-of-conformal-prediction","title":"On the Expected Size of Conformal Prediction Sets","arxiv_id":"2306.07254","date":"2023-06-12","proceeding":null,"authors":["Guneet S. Dhillon","George Deligiannidis","Tom Rainforth"],"abstract":"While conformal predictors reap the benefits of rigorous statistical guarantees on their error frequency, the size of their corresponding prediction sets is critical to their practical utility. Unfortunately, there is currently a lack of finite-sample analysis and guarantees for their prediction set sizes. To address this shortfall, we theoretically quantify the expected size of the prediction sets under the split conformal prediction framework. As this precise formulation cannot usually be calculated directly, we further derive point estimates and high-probability interval bounds that can be empirically computed, providing a practical method for characterizing the expected set size. We corroborate the efficacy of our results with experiments on real-world datasets for both regression and classification problems.","url_abs":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2306.07254v3","url_pdf":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2306.07254v3.pdf","source":{"archive":"pwc-archive (Hugging Face), CC BY-SA 4.0","snapshot":"2025-07-28","licence_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/legalcode","row_kind":"abstracts"},"code_links":[{"paper_slug":"on-the-expected-size-of-conformal-prediction","repo_url":"https://github.com/guneet-dhillon/expected-conformal-prediction-set-size","is_official":1,"mentioned_in_paper":1,"mentioned_in_github":1,"framework":"none","reach":{"status":"ok","spdx":"Apache-2.0"}}],"tasks":[{"task_slug":"conformal-prediction","task_name":"Conformal Prediction"},{"task_slug":"prediction","task_name":"Prediction"}],"methods":[],"datasets_introduced":[],"methods_introduced":[],"results":[],"syntology":{"syntology_url":null,"atlas_url":"https://app.syntology.ai/?focus=2306.07254","mcp":{"get_harvested_code_for_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2306.07254"}},"developers":"https://syntology.ai/developers","read_at":"2026-09-24T18:15:14+00:00","read_at_is":"when the build read Syntology's graph, not when any sample ran","claim":"Per-sample execution status on synthesized fixtures; not a correctness claim about the paper. Samples come from repositories linked to the paper, official or community; repo_kind says which.","repos":[{"provenance":"external:paperswithcode_snapshot_2025-07-28","url":"https://github.com/guneet-dhillon/expected-conformal-prediction-set-size","reach":{"status":"ok","spdx":"Apache-2.0"}}],"summary":{"unverified":2},"by_repo_kind":{"official":{"samples":2,"ran":0,"repositories":1}},"repo_kind_vocabulary":{"official":"The archive marks this repository official for the paper","named_in_paper":"The archive records that the paper mentions this repository; it is not marked official","listed":"In the archive's code links for this paper, not marked official and not recorded as mentioned in the paper","found_in_text":"Syntology found this repository in the paper's own text; whether it is the authors' implementation is not asserted","community":"Not in the archive's code links for this paper; a community repository Syntology harvested"},"n_pointer_only_for_licence":0,"samples":[{"code_sha256_prefix":"472a18122d9395f6","entry":"get_high_dimension_regression_error","repo":"guneet-dhillon/expected-conformal-prediction-set-size","repo_kind":"official","path":"utils.py","file_url":"https://github.com/guneet-dhillon/expected-conformal-prediction-set-size/blob/HEAD/utils.py","link_basis":"first_harvest_node","language":"python","status":"unverified","verification_level":0,"contract_check":null,"metamorphic_tier":null,"behaviour_fingerprint":false,"licence":"Apache-2.0","inline_ok":true,"mcp_get_code":{"code_sha256":"472a18122d9395f6"}},{"code_sha256_prefix":"166ea61a87d447f6","entry":"get_regression_error","repo":"guneet-dhillon/expected-conformal-prediction-set-size","repo_kind":"official","path":"utils.py","file_url":"https://github.com/guneet-dhillon/expected-conformal-prediction-set-size/blob/HEAD/utils.py","link_basis":"first_harvest_node","language":"python","status":"unverified","verification_level":0,"contract_check":null,"metamorphic_tier":null,"behaviour_fingerprint":false,"licence":"Apache-2.0","inline_ok":true,"mcp_get_code":{"code_sha256":"166ea61a87d447f6"}}]},"arxiv_metadata":null,"syntology_extracted_results":null}