{"about":{"site":"https://codewithpapers.app","non_affiliation":"Code with Papers and Syntology are not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by Papers with Code, Meta, or the pwc-archive mirror.","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0","licence_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/legalcode","attribution":"https://codewithpapers.app/attribution","modified":"archive material modified by Syntology; see the attribution page"},"url":"/paper/most-claimed-statistical-findings-in-cross","title":"Most claimed statistical findings in cross-sectional return predictability are likely true","arxiv_id":"2206.15365","date":"2022-06-30","proceeding":null,"authors":["Andrew Y. Chen"],"abstract":"I develop simple and intuitive bounds for the false discovery rate (FDR) in cross-sectional return predictability publications. The simplest bounds require only summary statistics from previous papers, and show the FDR is at most 25% in eight out of nine previous studies. A more refined bound shows the FDR is at most 9%. These studies include Harvey, Liu, and Zhu (2016), who ``argue that most claimed findings in financial economics are likely false.'' I demonstrate how Harvey et al.'s own estimates imply an FDR of 9%, and that their conclusion stems from misinterpreting ``insignificant factor'' as ``false discovery.''","url_abs":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2206.15365v8","url_pdf":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2206.15365v8.pdf","source":{"archive":"pwc-archive (Hugging Face), CC BY-SA 4.0","snapshot":"2025-07-28","licence_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/legalcode","row_kind":"abstracts"},"code_links":[{"paper_slug":"most-claimed-statistical-findings-in-cross","repo_url":"https://github.com/chenandrewy/mostly-true","is_official":1,"mentioned_in_paper":1,"mentioned_in_github":0,"framework":"none","reach":null}],"tasks":[],"methods":[],"datasets_introduced":[],"methods_introduced":[],"results":[],"syntology":{"atlas_url":null,"mcp":null,"developers":"https://syntology.ai/developers"},"arxiv_metadata":null,"syntology_extracted_results":null}