{"about":{"site":"https://codewithpapers.app","non_affiliation":"Code with Papers and Syntology are not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by Papers with Code, Meta, or the pwc-archive mirror.","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0","licence_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/legalcode","attribution":"https://codewithpapers.app/attribution","modified":"archive material modified by Syntology; see the attribution page"},"url":"/paper/llm-e-guess-can-llms-capabilities-advance","title":"LLM-e Guess: Can LLMs Capabilities Advance Without Hardware Progress?","arxiv_id":"2505.04075","date":"2025-05-07","proceeding":null,"authors":["Teddy Foley","Spencer Guo","Henry Josephson","Anqi Qu","Jack Sanderson"],"abstract":"This paper examines whether large language model (LLM) capabilities can continue to advance without additional compute by analyzing the development and role of algorithms used in state-of-the-art LLMs. Motivated by regulatory efforts that have largely focused on restricting access to high-performance hardware, we ask: Can LLMs progress in a compute-constrained environment, and how do algorithmic innovations perform under such conditions? To address these questions, we introduce a novel classification framework that distinguishes between compute-dependent innovations -- which yield disproportionate benefits at high compute levels (e.g., the Transformer architecture and mixture-of-experts models) and compute-independent innovations, which improve efficiency across all compute scales (e.g., rotary positional encoding, FlashAttention, or layer normalization). We quantify these contributions using a metric called compute-equivalent gain (CEG), which estimates the additional compute that would be required to achieve similar improvements without these algorithmic advancements. To validate this framework, we conduct small-scale training experiments with a scaled-down GPT-2 model. Our results confirm that compute-independent advancements yield meaningful performance gains even in resource-constrained settings, with a CEG of up to $3.5\\times$ over a baseline model. By contrast, compute-dependent advancements provided little benefit or even degraded performance at the small scale, reinforcing the importance of compute availability for certain algorithmic gains.","url_abs":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.04075v1","url_pdf":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2505.04075v1.pdf","source":{"archive":"pwc-archive (Hugging Face), CC BY-SA 4.0","snapshot":"2025-07-28","licence_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/legalcode","row_kind":"abstracts"},"code_links":[{"paper_slug":"llm-e-guess-can-llms-capabilities-advance","repo_url":"https://github.com/tedfoley/nanoGPT","is_official":1,"mentioned_in_paper":0,"mentioned_in_github":0,"framework":"pytorch","reach":null}],"tasks":[{"task_slug":"large-language-model","task_name":"Large Language Model"},{"task_slug":"mixture-of-experts","task_name":"Mixture-of-Experts"}],"methods":[{"method_slug":"absolute-position-encodings","method_name":"Absolute Position Encodings"},{"method_slug":"adam","method_name":"Adam"},{"method_slug":"attention","method_name":"Attention"},{"method_slug":"attention-dropout","method_name":"Attention Dropout"},{"method_slug":"bpe","method_name":"BPE"},{"method_slug":"cosine-annealing","method_name":"Cosine Annealing"},{"method_slug":"dense-connections","method_name":"Dense Connections"},{"method_slug":"discriminative-fine-tuning","method_name":"Discriminative Fine-Tuning"},{"method_slug":"dropout","method_name":"Dropout"},{"method_slug":"gpt-2","method_name":"GPT-2"},{"method_slug":"label-smoothing","method_name":"Label Smoothing"},{"method_slug":"layer-normalization","method_name":"Layer Normalization"},{"method_slug":"linear-layer","method_name":"Linear Layer"},{"method_slug":"linear-warmup-with-cosine-annealing","method_name":"Linear Warmup With Cosine Annealing"},{"method_slug":"multi-head-attention","method_name":"Multi-Head Attention"},{"method_slug":"position-wise-feed-forward-layer","method_name":"Position-Wise Feed-Forward Layer"},{"method_slug":"residual-connection","method_name":"Residual Connection"},{"method_slug":"softmax","method_name":"Softmax"},{"method_slug":"transformer","method_name":"Transformer"},{"method_slug":"weight-decay","method_name":"Weight Decay"}],"datasets_introduced":[],"methods_introduced":[],"results":[],"syntology":{"syntology_url":null,"atlas_url":null,"mcp":null,"developers":"https://syntology.ai/developers"},"arxiv_metadata":null,"syntology_extracted_results":null}