{"about":{"site":"https://codewithpapers.app","non_affiliation":"Code with Papers and Syntology are not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by Papers with Code, Meta, or the pwc-archive mirror.","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0","licence_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/legalcode","attribution":"https://codewithpapers.app/attribution","modified":"archive material modified by Syntology; see the attribution page"},"url":"/paper/inferring-the-long-term-causal-effects-of","title":"Inferring the Long-Term Causal Effects of Long-Term Treatments from Short-Term Experiments","arxiv_id":"2311.08527","date":"2023-11-14","proceeding":null,"authors":["Allen Tran","Aurélien Bibaut","Nathan Kallus"],"abstract":"We study inference on the long-term causal effect of a continual exposure to a novel intervention, which we term a long-term treatment, based on an experiment involving only short-term observations. Key examples include the long-term health effects of regularly-taken medicine or of environmental hazards and the long-term effects on users of changes to an online platform. This stands in contrast to short-term treatments or \"shocks,\" whose long-term effect can reasonably be mediated by short-term observations, enabling the use of surrogate methods. Long-term treatments by definition have direct effects on long-term outcomes via continual exposure, so surrogacy conditions cannot reasonably hold. We connect the problem with offline reinforcement learning, leveraging doubly-robust estimators to estimate long-term causal effects for long-term treatments and construct confidence intervals.","url_abs":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2311.08527v3","url_pdf":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2311.08527v3.pdf","source":{"archive":"pwc-archive (Hugging Face), CC BY-SA 4.0","snapshot":"2025-07-28","licence_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/legalcode","row_kind":"links_only","authors_date_abstract":"arXiv metadata, CC0 1.0 (https://info.arxiv.org/help/license), from the Kaggle arXiv metadata snapshot of 2026-09-12"},"code_links":[{"paper_slug":"inferring-the-long-term-causal-effects-of","repo_url":"https://github.com/allentran/long-term-ate-orl","is_official":1,"mentioned_in_paper":1,"mentioned_in_github":0,"framework":"jax","reach":{"status":"ok","spdx":"MIT"}}],"tasks":[],"methods":[],"datasets_introduced":[],"methods_introduced":[],"results":[],"syntology":{"atlas_url":"https://app.syntology.ai/?focus=2311.08527","mcp":null,"developers":"https://syntology.ai/developers"},"arxiv_metadata":null,"syntology_extracted_results":null}