{"about":{"site":"https://codewithpapers.app","non_affiliation":"Code with Papers and Syntology are not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by Papers with Code, Meta, or the pwc-archive mirror.","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0","licence_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/legalcode","attribution":"https://codewithpapers.app/attribution","modified":"archive material modified by Syntology; see the attribution page"},"url":"/paper/individual-bus-trip-chain-prediction-and","title":"Individual Bus Trip Chain Prediction and Pattern Identification Considering Similarities","arxiv_id":"2412.11364","date":"2024-12-16","proceeding":null,"authors":["Xiannan Huang","Yixin Chen","Quan Yuan","Chao Yang"],"abstract":"Predicting future bus trip chains for an existing user is of great significance for operators of public transit systems. Existing methods always treat this task as a time-series prediction problem, but the 1-dimensional time series structure cannot express the complex relationship between trips. To better capture the inherent patterns in bus travel behavior, this paper proposes a novel approach that synthesizes future bus trip chains based on those from similar days. Key similarity patterns are defined and tested using real-world data, and a similarity function is then developed to capture these patterns. Afterwards, a graph is constructed where each day is represented as a node and edge weight reflects the similarity between days. Besides, the trips on a given day can be regarded as labels for each node, transferring the bus trip chain prediction problem to a semi-supervised classification problem on a graph. To address this, we propose several methods and validate them on a real-world dataset of 10000 bus users, achieving state-of-the-art prediction results. Analyzing the parameters of similarity function reveals some interesting bus usage patterns, allowing us can to cluster bus users into three types: repeat-dominated, evolve-dominate and repeat-evolve balanced. In summary, our work demonstrates the effectiveness of similarity-based prediction for bus trip chains and provides a new perspective for analyzing individual bus travel patterns. The code for our prediction model is publicly available.","url_abs":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2412.11364v1","url_pdf":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2412.11364v1.pdf","source":{"archive":"pwc-archive (Hugging Face), CC BY-SA 4.0","snapshot":"2025-07-28","licence_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/legalcode","row_kind":"abstracts"},"code_links":[{"paper_slug":"individual-bus-trip-chain-prediction-and","repo_url":"https://github.com/xiannanhuang/graph_method_for_bus_trip","is_official":1,"mentioned_in_paper":1,"mentioned_in_github":0,"framework":"none","reach":null}],"tasks":[{"task_slug":"prediction","task_name":"Prediction"},{"task_slug":"time-series-1","task_name":"Time Series"},{"task_slug":"time-series-prediction","task_name":"Time Series Prediction"}],"methods":[{"method_slug":null,"method_name":"Travel"}],"datasets_introduced":[],"methods_introduced":[],"results":[],"syntology":{"syntology_url":null,"atlas_url":null,"mcp":null,"developers":"https://syntology.ai/developers"},"arxiv_metadata":null,"syntology_extracted_results":null}