{"about":{"site":"https://codewithpapers.app","non_affiliation":"Code with Papers and Syntology are not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by Papers with Code, Meta, or the pwc-archive mirror.","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0","licence_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/legalcode","attribution":"https://codewithpapers.app/attribution","modified":"archive material modified by Syntology; see the attribution page"},"url":"/paper/indeterminate-probability-neural-network","title":"Indeterminate Probability Theory","arxiv_id":"2303.11536","date":"2023-03-21","proceeding":null,"authors":["Tao Yang","Chuang Liu","Xiaofeng Ma","Weijia Lu","Ning Wu","Bingyang Li","Zhifei Yang","Peng Liu","Lin Sun","Xiaodong Zhang","Can Zhang"],"abstract":"Complex continuous or mixed joint distributions (e.g., P(Y | z_1, z_2, ..., z_N)) generally lack closed-form solutions, often necessitating approximations such as MCMC. This paper proposes Indeterminate Probability Theory (IPT), which makes the following contributions: (1) An observer-centered framework in which experimental outcomes are represented as distributions combining ground truth with observation error; (2) The introduction of three independence candidate axioms that enable a two-phase probabilistic inference framework; (3) The derivation of closed-form solutions for arbitrary complex joint distributions under this framework. Both the Indeterminate Probability Neural Network (IPNN) model and the non-neural multivariate time series forecasting application demonstrate IPT's effectiveness in modeling high-dimensional distributions, with successful validation up to 1000 dimensions. Importantly, IPT is consistent with classical probability theory and subsumes the frequentist equation in the limit of vanishing observation error.","url_abs":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.11536v2","url_pdf":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2303.11536v2.pdf","source":{"archive":"pwc-archive (Hugging Face), CC BY-SA 4.0","snapshot":"2025-07-28","licence_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/legalcode","row_kind":"abstracts"},"code_links":[{"paper_slug":"indeterminate-probability-neural-network","repo_url":"https://github.com/starfruit007/ipnn","is_official":1,"mentioned_in_paper":1,"mentioned_in_github":1,"framework":"pytorch","reach":null}],"tasks":[{"task_slug":"classification-1","task_name":"Classification"},{"task_slug":"multivariate-time-series-forecasting","task_name":"Multivariate Time Series Forecasting"},{"task_slug":"time-series-forecasting","task_name":"Time Series Forecasting"}],"methods":[],"datasets_introduced":[],"methods_introduced":[],"results":[],"syntology":{"atlas_url":null,"mcp":null,"developers":"https://syntology.ai/developers"},"arxiv_metadata":null,"syntology_extracted_results":null}