{"about":{"site":"https://codewithpapers.app","non_affiliation":"Code with Papers and Syntology are not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by Papers with Code, Meta, or the pwc-archive mirror.","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0","licence_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/legalcode","attribution":"https://codewithpapers.app/attribution","modified":"archive material modified by Syntology; see the attribution page"},"url":"/paper/improving-tropical-cyclone-forecasting-with","title":"Improving Tropical Cyclone Forecasting With Video Diffusion Models","arxiv_id":"2501.16003","date":"2025-01-27","proceeding":null,"authors":["Zhibo Ren","Pritthijit Nath","Pancham Shukla"],"abstract":"Tropical cyclone (TC) forecasting is crucial for disaster preparedness and mitigation. While recent deep learning approaches have shown promise, existing methods often treat TC evolution as a series of independent frame-to-frame predictions, limiting their ability to capture long-term dynamics. We present a novel application of video diffusion models for TC forecasting that explicitly models temporal dependencies through additional temporal layers. Our approach enables the model to generate multiple frames simultaneously, better capturing cyclone evolution patterns. We introduce a two-stage training strategy that significantly improves individual-frame quality and performance in low-data regimes. Experimental results show our method outperforms the previous approach of Nath et al. by 19.3% in MAE, 16.2% in PSNR, and 36.1% in SSIM. Most notably, we extend the reliable forecasting horizon from 36 to 50 hours. Through comprehensive evaluation using both traditional metrics and Fr\\'echet Video Distance (FVD), we demonstrate that our approach produces more temporally coherent forecasts while maintaining competitive single-frame quality. Code accessible at https://github.com/Ren-creater/forecast-video-diffmodels.","url_abs":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2501.16003v5","url_pdf":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2501.16003v5.pdf","source":{"archive":"pwc-archive (Hugging Face), CC BY-SA 4.0","snapshot":"2025-07-28","licence_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/legalcode","row_kind":"abstracts"},"code_links":[{"paper_slug":"improving-tropical-cyclone-forecasting-with","repo_url":"https://github.com/ren-creater/forecast-video-diffmodels","is_official":1,"mentioned_in_paper":1,"mentioned_in_github":0,"framework":"pytorch","reach":null}],"tasks":[{"task_slug":"ssim","task_name":"SSIM"}],"methods":[{"method_slug":"diffusion","method_name":"Diffusion"},{"method_slug":"mae","method_name":"MAE"}],"datasets_introduced":[],"methods_introduced":[],"results":[],"syntology":{"atlas_url":"https://app.syntology.ai/?focus=2501.16003","mcp":{"get_harvested_code_for_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2501.16003"}},"developers":"https://syntology.ai/developers","read_at":"2026-09-24T18:15:14+00:00","read_at_is":"when the build read Syntology's graph, not when any sample ran","claim":"Per-sample execution status on synthesized fixtures; not a correctness claim about the paper. Samples come from repositories linked to the paper, official or community; repo_kind says which.","repos":[{"provenance":"external:paperswithcode_snapshot_2025-07-28","url":"https://github.com/ren-creater/forecast-video-diffmodels","reach":null}],"summary":{"unverified":1},"by_repo_kind":{"official":{"samples":1,"ran":0,"repositories":1}},"repo_kind_vocabulary":{"official":"The archive marks this repository official for the paper","named_in_paper":"The archive records that the paper mentions this repository; it is not marked official","listed":"In the archive's code links for this paper, not marked official and not recorded as mentioned in the paper","found_in_text":"Syntology found this repository in the paper's own text; whether it is the authors' implementation is not asserted","community":"Not in the archive's code links for this paper; a community repository Syntology harvested"},"n_pointer_only_for_licence":0,"samples":[{"code_sha256_prefix":"a6d400d2a689054a","entry":"UNet_VAE","repo":"ren-creater/forecast-video-diffmodels","repo_kind":"official","path":"imagen/modules.py","file_url":"https://github.com/ren-creater/forecast-video-diffmodels/blob/HEAD/imagen/modules.py","link_basis":"first_harvest_node","language":"python","status":"unverified","verification_level":0,"contract_check":null,"metamorphic_tier":null,"behaviour_fingerprint":false,"licence":"MIT","inline_ok":true,"mcp_get_code":{"code_sha256":"a6d400d2a689054a"}}]},"arxiv_metadata":null,"syntology_extracted_results":null}