{"about":{"site":"https://codewithpapers.app","non_affiliation":"Code with Papers and Syntology are not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by Papers with Code, Meta, or the pwc-archive mirror.","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0","licence_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/legalcode","attribution":"https://codewithpapers.app/attribution","modified":"archive material modified by Syntology; see the attribution page"},"url":"/paper/impact-of-the-euro-2020-championship-on-the","title":"Impact of the Euro 2020 championship on the spread of COVID-19","arxiv_id":"2301.07659","date":"2023-01-18","proceeding":null,"authors":["Jonas Dehning","Sebastian B. Mohr","Sebastian Contreras","Philipp Dönges","Emil N. Iftekhar","Oliver Schulz","Philip Bechtle","Viola Priesemann"],"abstract":"Large-scale events like the UEFA Euro~2020 football (soccer) championship offer a unique opportunity to quantify the impact of gatherings on the spread of COVID-19, as the number and dates of matches played by participating countries resembles a randomized study. Using Bayesian modeling and the gender imbalance in COVID-19 data, we attribute 840,000 (95% CI: [0.39M, 1.26M]) COVID-19 cases across 12 countries to the championship. The impact depends non-linearly on the initial incidence, the reproduction number $R$, and the number of matches played. The strongest effects are seen in Scotland and England, where as much as 10,000 primary cases per million inhabitants occur from championship-related gatherings. The average match-induced increase in $R$ was 0.46 [0.18, 0.75] on match days, but important matches caused an increase as large as +3. Altogether, our results provide quantitative insights that help judge and mitigate the impact of large-scale events on pandemic spread.","url_abs":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2301.07659v1","url_pdf":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2301.07659v1.pdf","source":{"archive":"pwc-archive (Hugging Face), CC BY-SA 4.0","snapshot":"2025-07-28","licence_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/legalcode","row_kind":"abstracts"},"code_links":[{"paper_slug":"impact-of-the-euro-2020-championship-on-the","repo_url":"https://github.com/priesemann-group/covid19_soccer","is_official":1,"mentioned_in_paper":1,"mentioned_in_github":0,"framework":"none","reach":null},{"paper_slug":"impact-of-the-euro-2020-championship-on-the","repo_url":"https://github.com/Priesemann-Group/covid19_inference","is_official":0,"mentioned_in_paper":0,"mentioned_in_github":1,"framework":"none","reach":null}],"tasks":[{"task_slug":"attribute","task_name":"Attribute"}],"methods":[{"method_slug":"1x1-convolution","method_name":"1x1 Convolution"},{"method_slug":"adam","method_name":"Adam"},{"method_slug":"batch-normalization","method_name":"Batch Normalization"},{"method_slug":"biggan","method_name":"BigGAN"},{"method_slug":"conditional-batch-normalization","method_name":"Conditional Batch Normalization"},{"method_slug":"convolution","method_name":"Convolution"},{"method_slug":"dense-connections","method_name":"Dense Connections"},{"method_slug":"early-stopping","method_name":"Early Stopping"},{"method_slug":"feedforward-network","method_name":"Feedforward Network"},{"method_slug":"gan-hinge-loss","method_name":"GAN Hinge Loss"},{"method_slug":"linear-layer","method_name":"Linear Layer"},{"method_slug":"non-local-block","method_name":"Non-Local Block"},{"method_slug":"non-local-operation","method_name":"Non-Local Operation"},{"method_slug":"off-diagonal-orthogonal-regularization","method_name":"Off-Diagonal Orthogonal Regularization"},{"method_slug":"projection-discriminator","method_name":"Projection Discriminator"},{"method_slug":"relu","method_name":"ReLU"},{"method_slug":"residual-block","method_name":"Residual Block"},{"method_slug":"residual-connection","method_name":"Residual Connection"},{"method_slug":"sagan","method_name":"SAGAN"},{"method_slug":"softmax","method_name":"Softmax"},{"method_slug":"spectral-normalization","method_name":"Spectral Normalization"},{"method_slug":"ttur","method_name":"TTUR"},{"method_slug":"truncation-trick","method_name":"Truncation Trick"}],"datasets_introduced":[],"methods_introduced":[],"results":[],"syntology":{"syntology_url":null,"atlas_url":null,"mcp":null,"developers":"https://syntology.ai/developers"},"arxiv_metadata":null,"syntology_extracted_results":null}