{"about":{"site":"https://codewithpapers.app","non_affiliation":"Code with Papers and Syntology are not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by Papers with Code, Meta, or the pwc-archive mirror.","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0","licence_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/legalcode","attribution":"https://codewithpapers.app/attribution","modified":"archive material modified by Syntology; see the attribution page"},"url":"/paper/forecasting-sep-events-during-solar-cycles-23","title":"Forecasting SEP Events During Solar Cycles 23 and 24 Using Interpretable Machine Learning","arxiv_id":"2403.02536","date":"2024-03-04","proceeding":null,"authors":["Spiridon Kasapis","Irina N. Kitiashvili","Paul Kosovich","Alexander G. Kosovichev","Viacheslav M. Sadykov","Patrick O'Keefe","Vincent Wang"],"abstract":"Prediction of the Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events garner increasing interest as space missions extend beyond Earth's protective magnetosphere. These events, which are, in most cases, products of magnetic reconnection-driven processes during solar flares or fast coronal-mass-ejection-driven shock waves, pose significant radiation hazards to aviation, space-based electronics, and particularly, space exploration. In this work, we utilize the recently developed dataset that combines the Solar Dynamics Observatory/Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager's (SDO/HMI) Space weather HMI Active Region Patches (SHARP) and the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/Michelson Doppler Imager's (SoHO/MDI) Space Weather MDI Active Region Patches (SMARP). We employ a suite of machine learning strategies, including Support Vector Machines (SVM) and regression models, to evaluate the predictive potential of this new data product for a forecast of post-solar flare SEP events. Our study indicates that despite the augmented volume of data, the prediction accuracy reaches 0.7 +- 0.1, which aligns with but does not exceed these published benchmarks. A linear SVM model with training and testing configurations that mimic an operational setting (positive-negative imbalance) reveals a slight increase (+ 0.04 +- 0.05) in the accuracy of a 14-hour SEP forecast compared to previous studies. This outcome emphasizes the imperative for more sophisticated, physics-informed models to better understand the underlying processes leading to SEP events.","url_abs":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2403.02536v1","url_pdf":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2403.02536v1.pdf","source":{"archive":"pwc-archive (Hugging Face), CC BY-SA 4.0","snapshot":"2025-07-28","licence_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/legalcode","row_kind":"abstracts"},"code_links":[{"paper_slug":"forecasting-sep-events-during-solar-cycles-23","repo_url":"https://github.com/skasapis/sep_pred_smarp-sharp","is_official":1,"mentioned_in_paper":1,"mentioned_in_github":0,"framework":"none","reach":null}],"tasks":[{"task_slug":"interpretable-machine-learning","task_name":"Interpretable Machine Learning"}],"methods":[{"method_slug":"svm","method_name":"SVM"}],"datasets_introduced":[],"methods_introduced":[],"results":[],"syntology":{"syntology_url":null,"atlas_url":null,"mcp":null,"developers":"https://syntology.ai/developers"},"arxiv_metadata":null,"syntology_extracted_results":null}