{"about":{"site":"https://codewithpapers.app","non_affiliation":"Code with Papers and Syntology are not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by Papers with Code, Meta, or the pwc-archive mirror.","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0","licence_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/legalcode","attribution":"https://codewithpapers.app/attribution","modified":"archive material modified by Syntology; see the attribution page"},"url":"/paper/forecasting-high-dimensional-functional-time","title":"Forecasting high-dimensional functional time series: Application to sub-national age-specific mortality","arxiv_id":"2305.19749","date":"2023-05-31","proceeding":null,"authors":["Cristian F. Jiménez-Varón","Ying Sun","Han Lin Shang"],"abstract":"We study the modeling and forecasting of high-dimensional functional time series (HDFTS), which can be cross-sectionally correlated and temporally dependent. We introduce a decomposition of the HDFTS into two distinct components: a deterministic component and a residual component that varies over time. The decomposition is derived through the estimation of two-way functional analysis of variance. A functional time series forecasting method, based on functional principal component analysis, is implemented to produce forecasts for the residual component. By combining the forecasts of the residual component with the deterministic component, we obtain forecast curves for multiple populations. We apply the model to age- and sex-specific mortality rates in the United States, France, and Japan, in which there are 51 states, 95 departments, and 47 prefectures, respectively. The proposed method is capable of delivering more accurate point and interval forecasts in forecasting multi-population mortality than several benchmark methods considered.","url_abs":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2305.19749v2","url_pdf":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2305.19749v2.pdf","source":{"archive":"pwc-archive (Hugging Face), CC BY-SA 4.0","snapshot":"2025-07-28","licence_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/legalcode","row_kind":"links_only","authors_date_abstract":"arXiv metadata, CC0 1.0 (https://info.arxiv.org/help/license), from the Kaggle arXiv metadata snapshot of 2026-09-12"},"code_links":[{"paper_slug":"forecasting-high-dimensional-functional-time","repo_url":"https://github.com/cfjimenezv07/forecasting_hdfts","is_official":1,"mentioned_in_paper":1,"mentioned_in_github":0,"framework":"none","reach":null}],"tasks":[],"methods":[],"datasets_introduced":[],"methods_introduced":[],"results":[],"syntology":{"atlas_url":null,"mcp":null,"developers":"https://syntology.ai/developers"},"arxiv_metadata":null,"syntology_extracted_results":null}