{"about":{"site":"https://codewithpapers.app","non_affiliation":"Code with Papers and Syntology are not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by Papers with Code, Meta, or the pwc-archive mirror.","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0","licence_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/legalcode","attribution":"https://codewithpapers.app/attribution","modified":"archive material modified by Syntology; see the attribution page"},"url":"/paper/evars-gpr-event-triggered-augmented-refitting","title":"EVARS-GPR: EVent-triggered Augmented Refitting of Gaussian Process Regression for Seasonal Data","arxiv_id":"2107.02463","date":"2021-07-06","proceeding":null,"authors":["Florian Haselbeck","Dominik G. Grimm"],"abstract":"Time series forecasting is a growing domain with diverse applications. However, changes of the system behavior over time due to internal or external influences are challenging. Therefore, predictions of a previously learned fore-casting model might not be useful anymore. In this paper, we present EVent-triggered Augmented Refitting of Gaussian Process Regression for Seasonal Data (EVARS-GPR), a novel online algorithm that is able to handle sudden shifts in the target variable scale of seasonal data. For this purpose, EVARS-GPR com-bines online change point detection with a refitting of the prediction model using data augmentation for samples prior to a change point. Our experiments on sim-ulated data show that EVARS-GPR is applicable for a wide range of output scale changes. EVARS-GPR has on average a 20.8 % lower RMSE on different real-world datasets compared to methods with a similar computational resource con-sumption. Furthermore, we show that our algorithm leads to a six-fold reduction of the averaged runtime in relation to all comparison partners with a periodical refitting strategy. In summary, we present a computationally efficient online fore-casting algorithm for seasonal time series with changes of the target variable scale and demonstrate its functionality on simulated as well as real-world data. All code is publicly available on GitHub: https://github.com/grimmlab/evars-gpr.","url_abs":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2107.02463v1","url_pdf":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2107.02463v1.pdf","source":{"archive":"pwc-archive (Hugging Face), CC BY-SA 4.0","snapshot":"2025-07-28","licence_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/legalcode","row_kind":"abstracts"},"code_links":[{"paper_slug":"evars-gpr-event-triggered-augmented-refitting","repo_url":"https://github.com/grimmlab/evars-gpr","is_official":1,"mentioned_in_paper":1,"mentioned_in_github":0,"framework":"none","reach":null}],"tasks":[{"task_slug":"change-point-detection","task_name":"Change Point Detection"},{"task_slug":"data-augmentation","task_name":"Data Augmentation"},{"task_slug":"gpr","task_name":"GPR"},{"task_slug":"time-series-1","task_name":"Time Series"},{"task_slug":"time-series","task_name":"Time Series Analysis"},{"task_slug":"time-series-forecasting","task_name":"Time Series Forecasting"},{"task_slug":"regression-1","task_name":"regression"}],"methods":[{"method_slug":"gaussian-process","method_name":"Gaussian Process"}],"datasets_introduced":[],"methods_introduced":[],"results":[],"syntology":{"atlas_url":null,"mcp":null,"developers":"https://syntology.ai/developers"},"arxiv_metadata":null,"syntology_extracted_results":null}