{"about":{"site":"https://codewithpapers.app","non_affiliation":"Code with Papers and Syntology are not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by Papers with Code, Meta, or the pwc-archive mirror.","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0","licence_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/legalcode","attribution":"https://codewithpapers.app/attribution","modified":"archive material modified by Syntology; see the attribution page"},"url":"/paper/es-drnn-with-dynamic-attention-for-short-term","title":"ES-dRNN with Dynamic Attention for Short-Term Load Forecasting","arxiv_id":"2203.00937","date":"2022-03-02","proceeding":null,"authors":["Slawek Smyl","Grzegorz Dudek","Paweł Pełka"],"abstract":"Short-term load forecasting (STLF) is a challenging problem due to the complex nature of the time series expressing multiple seasonality and varying variance. This paper proposes an extension of a hybrid forecasting model combining exponential smoothing and dilated recurrent neural network (ES-dRNN) with a mechanism for dynamic attention. We propose a new gated recurrent cell -- attentive dilated recurrent cell, which implements an attention mechanism for dynamic weighting of input vector components. The most relevant components are assigned greater weights, which are subsequently dynamically fine-tuned. This attention mechanism helps the model to select input information and, along with other mechanisms implemented in ES-dRNN, such as adaptive time series processing, cross-learning, and multiple dilation, leads to a significant improvement in accuracy when compared to well-established statistical and state-of-the-art machine learning forecasting models. This was confirmed in the extensive experimental study concerning STLF for 35 European countries.","url_abs":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2203.00937v1","url_pdf":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2203.00937v1.pdf","source":{"archive":"pwc-archive (Hugging Face), CC BY-SA 4.0","snapshot":"2025-07-28","licence_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/legalcode","row_kind":"abstracts"},"code_links":[{"paper_slug":"es-drnn-with-dynamic-attention-for-short-term","repo_url":"https://github.com/slaweks17/es-adrnn","is_official":1,"mentioned_in_paper":1,"mentioned_in_github":0,"framework":"pytorch","reach":null}],"tasks":[{"task_slug":"load-forecasting","task_name":"Load Forecasting"},{"task_slug":"time-series-1","task_name":"Time Series"},{"task_slug":"time-series","task_name":"Time Series Analysis"}],"methods":[],"datasets_introduced":[],"methods_introduced":[],"results":[],"syntology":{"syntology_url":null,"atlas_url":null,"mcp":null,"developers":"https://syntology.ai/developers"},"arxiv_metadata":null,"syntology_extracted_results":null}