{"about":{"site":"https://codewithpapers.app","non_affiliation":"Code with Papers and Syntology are not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by Papers with Code, Meta, or the pwc-archive mirror.","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0","licence_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/legalcode","attribution":"https://codewithpapers.app/attribution","modified":"archive material modified by Syntology; see the attribution page"},"url":"/paper/electricity-spot-prices-forecasting-using","title":"Electricity Spot Prices Forecasting Using Stochastic Volatility Models","arxiv_id":"2406.19405","date":"2024-06-09","proceeding":null,"authors":["Andrei Renatovich Batyrov"],"abstract":"There are several approaches to modeling and forecasting time series as applied to prices of commodities and financial assets. One of the approaches is to model the price as a non-stationary time series process with heteroscedastic volatility (variance of price). The goal of the research is to generate probabilistic forecasts of day-ahead electricity prices in a spot marker employing stochastic volatility models. A typical stochastic volatility model - that treats the volatility as a latent stochastic process in discrete time - is explored first. Then the research focuses on enriching the baseline model by introducing several exogenous regressors. A better fitting model - as compared to the baseline model - is derived as a result of the research. Out-of-sample forecasts confirm the applicability and robustness of the enriched model. This model may be used in financial derivative instruments for hedging the risk associated with electricity trading. Keywords: Electricity spot prices forecasting, Stochastic volatility, Exogenous regressors, Autoregression, Bayesian inference, Stan","url_abs":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2406.19405v1","url_pdf":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2406.19405v1.pdf","source":{"archive":"pwc-archive (Hugging Face), CC BY-SA 4.0","snapshot":"2025-07-28","licence_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/legalcode","row_kind":"abstracts"},"code_links":[{"paper_slug":"electricity-spot-prices-forecasting-using","repo_url":"https://github.com/andrewha/mds2022/tree/main/Thesis","is_official":1,"mentioned_in_paper":0,"mentioned_in_github":0,"framework":"none","reach":null}],"tasks":[{"task_slug":"bayesian-inference","task_name":"Bayesian Inference"},{"task_slug":"time-series-1","task_name":"Time Series"}],"methods":[],"datasets_introduced":[],"methods_introduced":[],"results":[],"syntology":{"atlas_url":null,"mcp":null,"developers":"https://syntology.ai/developers"},"arxiv_metadata":null,"syntology_extracted_results":null}