{"about":{"site":"https://codewithpapers.app","non_affiliation":"Code with Papers and Syntology are not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by Papers with Code, Meta, or the pwc-archive mirror.","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0","licence_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/legalcode","attribution":"https://codewithpapers.app/attribution","modified":"archive material modified by Syntology; see the attribution page"},"url":"/paper/detecting-and-diagnosing-prior-and-likelihood","title":"Detecting and diagnosing prior and likelihood sensitivity with power-scaling","arxiv_id":"2107.14054","date":"2021-07-29","proceeding":null,"authors":["Noa Kallioinen","Topi Paananen","Paul-Christian Bürkner","Aki Vehtari"],"abstract":"Determining the sensitivity of the posterior to perturbations of the prior and likelihood is an important part of the Bayesian workflow. We introduce a practical and computationally efficient sensitivity analysis approach using importance sampling to estimate properties of posteriors resulting from power-scaling the prior or likelihood. On this basis, we suggest a diagnostic that can indicate the presence of prior-data conflict or likelihood noninformativity and discuss limitations to this power-scaling approach. The approach can be easily included in Bayesian workflows with minimal effort by the model builder and we present an implementation in our new R package priorsense. We further demonstrate the workflow on case studies of real data using models varying in complexity from simple linear models to Gaussian process models.","url_abs":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2107.14054v4","url_pdf":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2107.14054v4.pdf","source":{"archive":"pwc-archive (Hugging Face), CC BY-SA 4.0","snapshot":"2025-07-28","licence_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/legalcode","row_kind":"links_only","authors_date_abstract":"arXiv metadata, CC0 1.0 (https://info.arxiv.org/help/license), from the Kaggle arXiv metadata snapshot of 2026-09-12"},"code_links":[{"paper_slug":"detecting-and-diagnosing-prior-and-likelihood","repo_url":"https://github.com/n-kall/powerscaling-sensitivity","is_official":1,"mentioned_in_paper":1,"mentioned_in_github":0,"framework":"none","reach":{"status":"ok"}}],"tasks":[],"methods":[],"datasets_introduced":[],"methods_introduced":[],"results":[],"syntology":{"atlas_url":"https://app.syntology.ai/?focus=2107.14054","mcp":null,"developers":"https://syntology.ai/developers"},"arxiv_metadata":null,"syntology_extracted_results":null}