{"about":{"site":"https://codewithpapers.app","non_affiliation":"Code with Papers and Syntology are not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by Papers with Code, Meta, or the pwc-archive mirror.","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0","licence_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/legalcode","attribution":"https://codewithpapers.app/attribution","modified":"archive material modified by Syntology; see the attribution page"},"url":"/paper/delfi-deep-mixture-models-for-long-term-air","title":"DELFI: Deep Mixture Models for Long-term Air Quality Forecasting in the Delhi National Capital Region","arxiv_id":"2210.15923","date":"2022-10-28","proceeding":null,"authors":["Naishadh Parmar","Raunak Shah","Tushar Goswamy","Vatsalya Tandon","Ravi Sahu","Ronak Sutaria","Purushottam Kar","Sachchida Nand Tripathi"],"abstract":"The identification and control of human factors in climate change is a rapidly growing concern and robust, real-time air-quality monitoring and forecasting plays a critical role in allowing effective policy formulation and implementation. This paper presents DELFI, a novel deep learning-based mixture model to make effective long-term predictions of Particulate Matter (PM) 2.5 concentrations. A key novelty in DELFI is its multi-scale approach to the forecasting problem. The observation that point predictions are more suitable in the short-term and probabilistic predictions in the long-term allows accurate predictions to be made as much as 24 hours in advance. DELFI incorporates meteorological data as well as pollutant-based features to ensure a robust model that is divided into two parts: (i) a stack of three Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks that perform differential modelling of the same window of past data, and (ii) a fully-connected layer enabling attention to each of the components. Experimental evaluation based on deployment of 13 stations in the Delhi National Capital Region (Delhi-NCR) in India establishes that DELFI offers far superior predictions especially in the long-term as compared to even non-parametric baselines. The Delhi-NCR recorded the 3rd highest PM levels amongst 39 mega-cities across the world during 2011-2015 and DELFI's performance establishes it as a potential tool for effective long-term forecasting of PM levels to enable public health management and environment protection.","url_abs":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2210.15923v1","url_pdf":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2210.15923v1.pdf","source":{"archive":"pwc-archive (Hugging Face), CC BY-SA 4.0","snapshot":"2025-07-28","licence_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/legalcode","row_kind":"abstracts"},"code_links":[{"paper_slug":"delfi-deep-mixture-models-for-long-term-air","repo_url":"https://github.com/2023-MindSpore-1/ms-code-211/tree/main/delf","is_official":0,"mentioned_in_paper":0,"mentioned_in_github":0,"framework":"mindspore","reach":null}],"tasks":[{"task_slug":"management","task_name":"Management"}],"methods":[],"datasets_introduced":[],"methods_introduced":[],"results":[],"syntology":{"atlas_url":null,"mcp":null,"developers":"https://syntology.ai/developers"},"arxiv_metadata":null,"syntology_extracted_results":null}