{"about":{"site":"https://codewithpapers.app","non_affiliation":"Code with Papers and Syntology are not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by Papers with Code, Meta, or the pwc-archive mirror.","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0","licence_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/legalcode","attribution":"https://codewithpapers.app/attribution","modified":"archive material modified by Syntology; see the attribution page"},"url":"/paper/conformal-bayesian-computation","title":"Conformal Bayesian Computation","arxiv_id":"2106.06137","date":"2021-06-11","proceeding":null,"authors":["Edwin Fong","Chris Holmes"],"abstract":"We develop scalable methods for producing conformal Bayesian predictive intervals with finite sample calibration guarantees. Bayesian posterior predictive distributions, $p(y \\mid x)$, characterize subjective beliefs on outcomes of interest, $y$, conditional on predictors, $x$. Bayesian prediction is well-calibrated when the model is true, but the predictive intervals may exhibit poor empirical coverage when the model is misspecified, under the so called ${\\cal{M}}$-open perspective. In contrast, conformal inference provides finite sample frequentist guarantees on predictive confidence intervals without the requirement of model fidelity. Using 'add-one-in' importance sampling, we show that conformal Bayesian predictive intervals are efficiently obtained from re-weighted posterior samples of model parameters. Our approach contrasts with existing conformal methods that require expensive refitting of models or data-splitting to achieve computational efficiency. We demonstrate the utility on a range of examples including extensions to partially exchangeable settings such as hierarchical models.","url_abs":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2106.06137v2","url_pdf":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2106.06137v2.pdf","source":{"archive":"pwc-archive (Hugging Face), CC BY-SA 4.0","snapshot":"2025-07-28","licence_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/legalcode","row_kind":"links_only","authors_date_abstract":"arXiv metadata, CC0 1.0 (https://info.arxiv.org/help/license), from the Kaggle arXiv metadata snapshot of 2026-09-12"},"code_links":[{"paper_slug":"conformal-bayesian-computation","repo_url":"https://github.com/edfong/conformal_bayes","is_official":1,"mentioned_in_paper":1,"mentioned_in_github":1,"framework":"jax","reach":null}],"tasks":[],"methods":[],"datasets_introduced":[],"methods_introduced":[],"results":[],"syntology":{"atlas_url":"https://app.syntology.ai/?focus=2106.06137","mcp":null,"developers":"https://syntology.ai/developers"},"arxiv_metadata":null,"syntology_extracted_results":null}