{"about":{"site":"https://codewithpapers.app","non_affiliation":"Code with Papers and Syntology are not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by Papers with Code, Meta, or the pwc-archive mirror.","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0","licence_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/legalcode","attribution":"https://codewithpapers.app/attribution","modified":"archive material modified by Syntology; see the attribution page"},"url":"/paper/climate-economy-projections-under-shared","title":"Climate-economy projections under shared socioeconomic pathways and net-zero scenarios","arxiv_id":"2504.11721","date":"2025-04-16","proceeding":null,"authors":["Daisuke Murakami","Pavel V. Shevchenko","Tomoko Matsui","Aleksandar Arandjelović","Tor A. Myrvoll"],"abstract":"We examine future trajectories of the social cost of carbon, global temperatures, and carbon concentrations using the cost-benefit Dynamic Integrated Climate-Economy (DICE) model calibrated to the five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) under two mitigation scenarios: achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 and by 2100. The DICE model is calibrated to align industrial and land-use carbon emissions with projections from six leading process-based integrated assessment models (IAMs): IMAGE, MESSAGE--GLOBIOM, AIM/CGE, GCAM, REMIND--MAgPIE and WITCH--GLOBIOM. We find that even with aggressive mitigation (net-zero by 2050), global temperatures are projected to exceed $2^\\circ\\text{C}$ above preindustrial levels by 2100, with estimates ranging from $2.5^\\circ\\text{C}$ to $2.7^\\circ\\text{C}$ across all SSPs and IAMs considered. Under the more lenient mitigation scenario (net-zero by 2100), global temperatures are projected to rise to between $3^\\circ\\text{C}$ and $3.7^\\circ\\text{C}$ by 2100. Additionally, the social cost of carbon is estimated to increase from approximately USD 30--50 in 2025 to USD 250--400 in 2100.","url_abs":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2504.11721v1","url_pdf":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2504.11721v1.pdf","source":{"archive":"pwc-archive (Hugging Face), CC BY-SA 4.0","snapshot":"2025-07-28","licence_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/legalcode","row_kind":"abstracts"},"code_links":[{"paper_slug":"climate-economy-projections-under-shared","repo_url":"https://github.com/olugovoy/climatedice","is_official":1,"mentioned_in_paper":0,"mentioned_in_github":0,"framework":"none","reach":null}],"tasks":[],"methods":[{"method_slug":"align","method_name":"ALIGN"}],"datasets_introduced":[],"methods_introduced":[],"results":[],"syntology":{"syntology_url":null,"atlas_url":null,"mcp":null,"developers":"https://syntology.ai/developers"},"arxiv_metadata":null,"syntology_extracted_results":null}