{"about":{"site":"https://codewithpapers.app","non_affiliation":"Code with Papers and Syntology are not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by Papers with Code, Meta, or the pwc-archive mirror.","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0","licence_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/legalcode","attribution":"https://codewithpapers.app/attribution","modified":"archive material modified by Syntology; see the attribution page"},"url":"/paper/causal-prediction-models-for-medication","title":"Causal prediction models for medication safety monitoring: The diagnosis of vancomycin-induced acute kidney injury","arxiv_id":"2311.09137","date":"2023-11-15","proceeding":null,"authors":["Izak Yasrebi-de Kom","Joanna Klopotowska","Dave Dongelmans","Nicolette De Keizer","Kitty Jager","Ameen Abu-Hanna","Giovanni Cinà"],"abstract":"The current best practice approach for the retrospective diagnosis of adverse drug events (ADEs) in hospitalized patients relies on a full patient chart review and a formal causality assessment by multiple medical experts. This evaluation serves to qualitatively estimate the probability of causation (PC); the probability that a drug was a necessary cause of an adverse event. This practice is manual, resource intensive and prone to human biases, and may thus benefit from data-driven decision support. Here, we pioneer a causal modeling approach using observational data to estimate a lower bound of the PC (PC$_{low}$). This method includes two key causal inference components: (1) the target trial emulation framework and (2) estimation of individualized treatment effects using machine learning. We apply our method to the clinically relevant use-case of vancomycin-induced acute kidney injury in intensive care patients, and compare our causal model-based PC$_{low}$ estimates to qualitative estimates of the PC provided by a medical expert. Important limitations and potential improvements are discussed, and we conclude that future improved causal models could provide essential data-driven support for medication safety monitoring in hospitalized patients.","url_abs":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2311.09137v1","url_pdf":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2311.09137v1.pdf","source":{"archive":"pwc-archive (Hugging Face), CC BY-SA 4.0","snapshot":"2025-07-28","licence_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/legalcode","row_kind":"abstracts"},"code_links":[{"paper_slug":"causal-prediction-models-for-medication","repo_url":"https://github.com/iydk/vaki_diagnosis_ml4h","is_official":1,"mentioned_in_paper":1,"mentioned_in_github":0,"framework":"none","reach":null}],"tasks":[{"task_slug":"causal-inference","task_name":"Causal Inference"}],"methods":[{"method_slug":"causal-inference","method_name":"Causal inference"}],"datasets_introduced":[],"methods_introduced":[],"results":[],"syntology":{"atlas_url":null,"mcp":null,"developers":"https://syntology.ai/developers"},"arxiv_metadata":null,"syntology_extracted_results":null}