{"about":{"site":"https://codewithpapers.app","non_affiliation":"Code with Papers and Syntology are not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by Papers with Code, Meta, or the pwc-archive mirror.","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0","licence_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/legalcode","attribution":"https://codewithpapers.app/attribution","modified":"archive material modified by Syntology; see the attribution page"},"url":"/paper/applying-non-negative-matrix-factorization-1","title":"Applying non-negative matrix factorization with covariates to multivariate time series data as a vector autoregression model","arxiv_id":"2501.17446","date":"2025-01-29","proceeding":null,"authors":["Kenichi Satoh"],"abstract":"We propose a novel framework for analyzing multivariate time series (MTS) data by integrating non-negative matrix factorization (NMF) with vector autoregression (VAR). Termed NMF-VAR, this method models the coefficient matrix of NMF as a VAR process, enabling simultaneous extraction of latent components and temporal dependencies. Unlike standard VAR, which struggles with high dimensionality and lacks clarity, our method introduces a low-rank latent structure that reduces the number of parameters while retaining explanatory power. The proposed framework generalizes the standard VAR model to high-dimensional non-negative data, including the standard VAR as a special case. We formulate the estimation as a constrained optimization problem and present multiplicative update rules for NMF based on existing tri-factorization techniques. We evaluate the method on three real-world datasets: quarterly first-differenced macroeconomic indicators of Canada, monthly international airline passenger volumes, and daily COVID-19 infection counts across Japanese prefectures. The results demonstrate that NMF-VAR effectively captures meaningful patterns such as economic cycles, seasonal travel behavior, and regional epidemic trends. Moreover, the method yields a significant reduction in regression parameters, improving both scalability and model transparency. Overall, NMF-VAR provides an efficient and insightful tool for analyzing high-dimensional and large-scale time series data.","url_abs":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2501.17446v2","url_pdf":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2501.17446v2.pdf","source":{"archive":"pwc-archive (Hugging Face), CC BY-SA 4.0","snapshot":"2025-07-28","licence_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/legalcode","row_kind":"links_only","authors_date_abstract":"arXiv metadata, CC0 1.0 (https://info.arxiv.org/help/license), from the Kaggle arXiv metadata snapshot of 2026-09-12"},"code_links":[{"paper_slug":"applying-non-negative-matrix-factorization-1","repo_url":"https://github.com/ksatohds/nmfkc","is_official":1,"mentioned_in_paper":1,"mentioned_in_github":1,"framework":"none","reach":null}],"tasks":[],"methods":[],"datasets_introduced":[],"methods_introduced":[],"results":[],"syntology":{"atlas_url":null,"mcp":null,"developers":"https://syntology.ai/developers"},"arxiv_metadata":null,"syntology_extracted_results":null}