{"about":{"site":"https://codewithpapers.app","non_affiliation":"Code with Papers and Syntology are not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by Papers with Code, Meta, or the pwc-archive mirror.","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0","licence_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/legalcode","attribution":"https://codewithpapers.app/attribution","modified":"archive material modified by Syntology; see the attribution page"},"url":"/paper/age-structured-impact-of-social-distancing-on","title":"Age-structured impact of social distancing on the COVID-19 epidemic in India","arxiv_id":"2003.12055","date":"2020-03-26","proceeding":null,"authors":["Rajesh Singh","R. Adhikari"],"abstract":"The outbreak of the novel coronavirus, COVID-19, has been declared a pandemic by the WHO. The structures of social contact critically determine the spread of the infection and, in the absence of vaccines, the control of these structures through large-scale social distancing measures appears to be the most effective means of mitigation. Here we use an age-structured SIR model with social contact matrices obtained from surveys and Bayesian imputation to study the progress of the COVID-19 epidemic in India. The basic reproductive ratio R0 and its time-dependent generalization are computed based on case data, age distribution and social contact structure. The impact of social distancing measures - workplace non-attendance, school closure, lockdown - and their efficacy with durations are then investigated. A three-week lockdown is found insufficient to prevent a resurgence and, instead, protocols of sustained lockdown with periodic relaxation are suggested. Forecasts are provided for the reduction in age-structured morbidity and mortality as a result of these measures. Our study underlines the importance of age and social contact structures in assessing the country-specific impact of mitigatory social distancing.","url_abs":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2003.12055v1","url_pdf":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2003.12055v1.pdf","source":{"archive":"pwc-archive (Hugging Face), CC BY-SA 4.0","snapshot":"2025-07-28","licence_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/legalcode","row_kind":"abstracts"},"code_links":[{"paper_slug":"age-structured-impact-of-social-distancing-on","repo_url":"https://github.com/rajeshrinet/pyross","is_official":1,"mentioned_in_paper":1,"mentioned_in_github":1,"framework":"tf","reach":null},{"paper_slug":"age-structured-impact-of-social-distancing-on","repo_url":"https://github.com/p-j-r/covid-19","is_official":0,"mentioned_in_paper":0,"mentioned_in_github":1,"framework":"none","reach":null}],"tasks":[{"task_slug":"imputation","task_name":"Imputation"}],"methods":[],"datasets_introduced":[],"methods_introduced":[],"results":[],"syntology":{"atlas_url":null,"mcp":null,"developers":"https://syntology.ai/developers"},"arxiv_metadata":null,"syntology_extracted_results":null}