{"about":{"site":"https://codewithpapers.app","non_affiliation":"Code with Papers and Syntology are not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by Papers with Code, Meta, or the pwc-archive mirror.","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0","licence_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/legalcode","attribution":"https://codewithpapers.app/attribution","modified":"archive material modified by Syntology; see the attribution page"},"url":"/paper/aalf-almost-always-linear-forecasting","title":"AALF: Almost Always Linear Forecasting","arxiv_id":"2409.10142","date":"2024-09-16","proceeding":null,"authors":["Matthias Jakobs","Thomas Liebig"],"abstract":"Recent works for time-series forecasting more and more leverage the high predictive power of Deep Learning models. With this increase in model complexity, however, comes a lack in understanding of the underlying model decision process, which is problematic for high-stakes application scenarios. At the same time, simple, interpretable forecasting methods such as ARIMA still perform very well, sometimes on-par, with Deep Learning approaches. We argue that simple models are good enough most of the time, and that forecasting performance could be improved by choosing a Deep Learning method only for few, important predictions, increasing the overall interpretability of the forecasting process. In this context, we propose a novel online model selection framework which learns to identify these predictions. An extensive empirical study on various real-world datasets shows that our selection methodology performs comparable to state-of-the-art online model selections methods in most cases while being significantly more interpretable. We find that almost always choosing a simple autoregressive linear model for forecasting results in competitive performance, suggesting that the need for opaque black-box models in time-series forecasting might be smaller than recent works would suggest.","url_abs":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2409.10142v2","url_pdf":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2409.10142v2.pdf","source":{"archive":"pwc-archive (Hugging Face), CC BY-SA 4.0","snapshot":"2025-07-28","licence_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/legalcode","row_kind":"abstracts"},"code_links":[{"paper_slug":"aalf-almost-always-linear-forecasting","repo_url":"https://github.com/sdfk72auga1kwsi/aalf","is_official":1,"mentioned_in_paper":0,"mentioned_in_github":0,"framework":"none","reach":null}],"tasks":[{"task_slug":"decision-making","task_name":"Decision Making"},{"task_slug":"deep-learning","task_name":"Deep Learning"},{"task_slug":"meta-learning","task_name":"Meta-Learning"},{"task_slug":"model-selection","task_name":"Model Selection"},{"task_slug":"time-series-1","task_name":"Time Series"},{"task_slug":"time-series-forecasting","task_name":"Time Series Forecasting"}],"methods":[],"datasets_introduced":[],"methods_introduced":[],"results":[],"syntology":{"atlas_url":null,"mcp":null,"developers":"https://syntology.ai/developers"},"arxiv_metadata":null,"syntology_extracted_results":null}