{"about":{"site":"https://codewithpapers.app","non_affiliation":"Code with Papers and Syntology are not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by Papers with Code, Meta, or the pwc-archive mirror.","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0","licence_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/legalcode","attribution":"https://codewithpapers.app/attribution","modified":"archive material modified by Syntology; see the attribution page"},"url":"/paper/a-zero-inflated-endemic-epidemic-model-with","title":"A zero-inflated endemic-epidemic model with an application to measles time series in Germany","arxiv_id":"2201.07285","date":"2022-01-18","proceeding":null,"authors":["Junyi Lu","Sebastian Meyer"],"abstract":"Count data with excessive zeros are often encountered when modelling infectious disease occurrence. The degree of zero inflation can vary over time due to non-epidemic periods as well as by age group or region. The existing endemic-epidemic modelling framework (aka HHH) lacks a proper treatment for surveillance data with excessive zeros as it is limited to Poisson and negative binomial distributions. In this paper, we propose a multivariate zero-inflated endemic-epidemic model with random effects to extend HHH. Parameters of the new zero-inflation and the HHH part of the model can be estimated jointly and efficiently via (penalized) maximum likelihood inference using analytical derivatives. A simulation study confirms proper convergence and coverage probabilities of confidence intervals. Applying the model to measles counts in the 16 German states, 2005--2018, shows that the added zero-inflation improves probabilistic forecasts.","url_abs":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2201.07285v1","url_pdf":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2201.07285v1.pdf","source":{"archive":"pwc-archive (Hugging Face), CC BY-SA 4.0","snapshot":"2025-07-28","licence_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/legalcode","row_kind":"links_only","authors_date_abstract":"arXiv metadata, CC0 1.0 (https://info.arxiv.org/help/license), from the Kaggle arXiv metadata snapshot of 2026-09-12"},"code_links":[{"paper_slug":"a-zero-inflated-endemic-epidemic-model-with","repo_url":"https://github.com/Junyi-L/hhh4ZI","is_official":1,"mentioned_in_paper":0,"mentioned_in_github":0,"framework":"none","reach":null}],"tasks":[],"methods":[],"datasets_introduced":[],"methods_introduced":[],"results":[],"syntology":{"syntology_url":null,"atlas_url":null,"mcp":null,"developers":"https://syntology.ai/developers"},"arxiv_metadata":null,"syntology_extracted_results":null}