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However, most of the existing epidemiological models fail to capture this aspect by neither representing the sites visited by individuals explicitly nor characterizing disease transmission as a function of individual mobility patterns. In this work, we introduce a temporal point process modeling framework that specifically represents visits to the sites where individuals get in contact and infect each other. Under our model, the number of infections caused by an infectious individual naturally emerges to be overdispersed. Using an efficient sampling algorithm, we demonstrate how to estimate the transmission rate of infectious individuals at the sites they visit and in their households using Bayesian optimization and longitudinal case data. Simulations using fine-grained and publicly available demographic data and site locations from Bern, Switzerland showcase the flexibility of our framework. To facilitate research and analyses of other cities and regions, we release an open-source implementation of our framework.","url_abs":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2004.07641v6","url_pdf":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.07641v6.pdf","source":{"archive":"pwc-archive (Hugging Face), CC BY-SA 4.0","snapshot":"2025-07-28","licence_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/legalcode","row_kind":"abstracts"},"code_links":[{"paper_slug":"a-spatiotemporal-epidemic-model-to-quantify","repo_url":"https://github.com/covid19-model/simulator","is_official":1,"mentioned_in_paper":1,"mentioned_in_github":1,"framework":"none","reach":{"status":"ok","spdx":"MIT"}},{"paper_slug":"a-spatiotemporal-epidemic-model-to-quantify","repo_url":"https://github.com/j-groeneveld/covid","is_official":0,"mentioned_in_paper":0,"mentioned_in_github":1,"framework":"none","reach":{"status":"ok","spdx":"MIT"}}],"tasks":[{"task_slug":"bayesian-optimization","task_name":"Bayesian Optimization"},{"task_slug":"point-processes","task_name":"Point Processes"}],"methods":[],"datasets_introduced":[],"methods_introduced":[],"results":[],"syntology":{"atlas_url":"https://app.syntology.ai/?focus=2004.07641","mcp":{"get_harvested_code_for_paper":{"arxiv_id":"2004.07641"}},"developers":"https://syntology.ai/developers","read_at":"2026-09-24T18:15:14+00:00","read_at_is":"when the build read Syntology's graph, not when any sample ran","claim":"Per-sample execution status on synthesized fixtures; not a correctness claim about the paper. 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