{"about":{"site":"https://codewithpapers.app","non_affiliation":"Code with Papers and Syntology are not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by Papers with Code, Meta, or the pwc-archive mirror.","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0","licence_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/legalcode","attribution":"https://codewithpapers.app/attribution","modified":"archive material modified by Syntology; see the attribution page"},"url":"/paper/a-polynomial-regression-model-for-excess","title":"A polynomial regression model for excess mortality in Mexico 2020-2022 due to the COVID-19 pandemic","arxiv_id":"2311.15483","date":"2023-11-27","proceeding":null,"authors":["Andreu Comas-García","Arturo Erdely"],"abstract":"Based on the comprehensive national death registry of Mexico spanning from 1998 to 2022 a point and interval estimation method for the excess mortality in Mexico during the years 2020-2022 is proposed based on illness-induced deaths only, using a polynomial regression model. The results obtained estimate that the excess mortality is around 788,000 people (39.3%) equivalently to a rate of 626 per 100,000 inhabitants. The male/female ratio is estimated to be 1.7 times. As a reference for comparison, for the whole period 2020-2020 Mexico's INEGI estimated an excess of mortality between 673,000 with a quasi-Poisson model and 808,000 using endemic channels estimation.","url_abs":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2311.15483v2","url_pdf":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2311.15483v2.pdf","source":{"archive":"pwc-archive (Hugging Face), CC BY-SA 4.0","snapshot":"2025-07-28","licence_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/legalcode","row_kind":"links_only","authors_date_abstract":"arXiv metadata, CC0 1.0 (https://info.arxiv.org/help/license), from the Kaggle arXiv metadata snapshot of 2026-09-12"},"code_links":[{"paper_slug":"a-polynomial-regression-model-for-excess","repo_url":"https://github.com/aerdely/excessmortmx","is_official":1,"mentioned_in_paper":1,"mentioned_in_github":1,"framework":"none","reach":null}],"tasks":[],"methods":[],"datasets_introduced":[],"methods_introduced":[],"results":[],"syntology":{"atlas_url":null,"mcp":null,"developers":"https://syntology.ai/developers"},"arxiv_metadata":null,"syntology_extracted_results":null}