{"about":{"site":"https://codewithpapers.app","non_affiliation":"Code with Papers and Syntology are not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by Papers with Code, Meta, or the pwc-archive mirror.","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0","licence_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/legalcode","attribution":"https://codewithpapers.app/attribution","modified":"archive material modified by Syntology; see the attribution page"},"url":"/paper/a-note-on-new-valuation-measures-for-standard","title":"A New Valuation Measure for the Stock Market","arxiv_id":"1905.04603","date":"2019-05-11","proceeding":null,"authors":["Andrey Sarantsev"],"abstract":"We propose a new valuation measure for the American stock market. We split total returns into three components: earnings growth, dividend yield, and valuation change. The first two components are fundamental, the third is speculative. We treat earnings growth as exogenous. Combining the other two components gives us a new valuation measure, which fits autoregression of order 1 with Gaussian innovations, centered at 4.6%. Therefore, long-term total returns equals long-term earnings growth plus 4.6%. We confirm the classic 4% withdrawal rule. A retiree should invest in stocks and withdraw 4% of initial wealth after adjusting for inflation.","url_abs":"https://arxiv.org/abs/1905.04603v11","url_pdf":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/1905.04603v11.pdf","source":{"archive":"pwc-archive (Hugging Face), CC BY-SA 4.0","snapshot":"2025-07-28","licence_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/legalcode","row_kind":"abstracts"},"code_links":[{"paper_slug":"a-note-on-new-valuation-measures-for-standard","repo_url":"https://github.com/asarantsev/BayesianLT","is_official":1,"mentioned_in_paper":1,"mentioned_in_github":0,"framework":"none","reach":null}],"tasks":[{"task_slug":"time-series","task_name":"Time Series Analysis"}],"methods":[{"method_slug":null,"method_name":"American"}],"datasets_introduced":[],"methods_introduced":[],"results":[],"syntology":{"syntology_url":null,"atlas_url":null,"mcp":null,"developers":"https://syntology.ai/developers"},"arxiv_metadata":null,"syntology_extracted_results":null}