{"about":{"site":"https://codewithpapers.app","non_affiliation":"Code with Papers and Syntology are not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by Papers with Code, Meta, or the pwc-archive mirror.","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0","licence_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/legalcode","attribution":"https://codewithpapers.app/attribution","modified":"archive material modified by Syntology; see the attribution page"},"url":"/paper/a-comparative-study-of-transformer-based-2","title":"A Comparative Study of Transformer-Based Models for Multi-Horizon Blood Glucose Prediction","arxiv_id":"2505.08821","date":"2025-05-12","proceeding":null,"authors":["Meryem Altin Karagoz","Marc D. Breton","Anas El Fathi"],"abstract":"Accurate blood glucose prediction can enable novel interventions for type 1 diabetes treatment, including personalized insulin and dietary adjustments. Although recent advances in transformer-based architectures have demonstrated the power of attention mechanisms in complex multivariate time series prediction, their potential for blood glucose (BG) prediction remains underexplored. We present a comparative analysis of transformer models for multi-horizon BG prediction, examining forecasts up to 4 hours and input history up to 1 week. The publicly available DCLP3 dataset (n=112) was split (80%-10%-10%) for training, validation, and testing, and the OhioT1DM dataset (n=12) served as an external test set. We trained networks with point-wise, patch-wise, series-wise, and hybrid embeddings, using CGM, insulin, and meal data. For short-term blood glucose prediction, Crossformer, a patch-wise transformer architecture, achieved a superior 30-minute prediction of RMSE (15.6 mg / dL on OhioT1DM). For longer-term predictions (1h, 2h, and 4h), PatchTST, another path-wise transformer, prevailed with the lowest RMSE (24.6 mg/dL, 36.1 mg/dL, and 46.5 mg/dL on OhioT1DM). In general, models that used tokenization through patches demonstrated improved accuracy with larger input sizes, with the best results obtained with a one-week history. These findings highlight the promise of transformer-based architectures for BG prediction by capturing and leveraging seasonal patterns in multivariate time-series data to improve accuracy.","url_abs":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.08821v1","url_pdf":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2505.08821v1.pdf","source":{"archive":"pwc-archive (Hugging Face), CC BY-SA 4.0","snapshot":"2025-07-28","licence_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/legalcode","row_kind":"abstracts"},"code_links":[{"paper_slug":"a-comparative-study-of-transformer-based-2","repo_url":"https://github.com/Center-for-Diabetes-Technology/TransformerBasedBGPrediction","is_official":1,"mentioned_in_paper":0,"mentioned_in_github":0,"framework":"pytorch","reach":null}],"tasks":[{"task_slug":"prediction","task_name":"Prediction"},{"task_slug":"time-series-1","task_name":"Time Series"},{"task_slug":"time-series-prediction","task_name":"Time Series Prediction"}],"methods":[{"method_slug":"attention","method_name":"Attention"},{"method_slug":"softmax","method_name":"Softmax"}],"datasets_introduced":[],"methods_introduced":[],"results":[],"syntology":{"atlas_url":null,"mcp":null,"developers":"https://syntology.ai/developers"},"arxiv_metadata":null,"syntology_extracted_results":null}