{"about":{"site":"https://codewithpapers.app","non_affiliation":"Code with Papers and Syntology are not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by Papers with Code, Meta, or the pwc-archive mirror.","licence":"CC BY-SA 4.0","licence_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/legalcode","attribution":"https://codewithpapers.app/attribution","modified":"archive material modified by Syntology; see the attribution page"},"url":"/paper/a-bayesian-approach-for-earthquake-impact","title":"A Bayesian Approach for Earthquake Impact Modelling","arxiv_id":"2412.15791","date":"2024-12-20","proceeding":null,"authors":["Max Anderson Loake","Hamish Patten","David Steinsaltz"],"abstract":"Immediately following a disaster event, such as an earthquake, estimates of the damage extent play a key role in informing the coordination of response and recovery efforts. We develop a novel impact estimation tool that leverages a generalised Bayesian approach to generate earthquake impact estimates across three impact types: mortality, population displacement, and building damage. Inference is performed within a likelihood-free framework, and a scoring-rule-based posterior avoids information loss from non-sufficient summary statistics. We propose an adaptation of existing scoring-rule-based loss functions that accommodates the use of an approximate Bayesian computation sequential Monte Carlo (ABC-SMC) framework. The fitted model achieves results comparable to those of two leading impact estimation tools in the prediction of total mortality when tested on a set of held-out past events. The proposed method provides four advantages over existing empirical approaches: modelling produces a gridded spatial map of the estimated impact, predictions benefit from the Bayesian quantification and interpretation of uncertainty, there is direct handling of multi-shock earthquake events, and the use of a joint model between impact types allows predictions to be updated as impact observations become available.","url_abs":"https://arxiv.org/abs/2412.15791v2","url_pdf":"https://arxiv.org/pdf/2412.15791v2.pdf","source":{"archive":"pwc-archive (Hugging Face), CC BY-SA 4.0","snapshot":"2025-07-28","licence_url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/legalcode","row_kind":"links_only","authors_date_abstract":"arXiv metadata, CC0 1.0 (https://info.arxiv.org/help/license), from the Kaggle arXiv metadata snapshot of 2026-09-12"},"code_links":[{"paper_slug":"a-bayesian-approach-for-earthquake-impact","repo_url":"https://github.com/hamishwp/ODDRIN","is_official":1,"mentioned_in_paper":0,"mentioned_in_github":1,"framework":"none","reach":null}],"tasks":[],"methods":[],"datasets_introduced":[],"methods_introduced":[],"results":[],"syntology":{"syntology_url":null,"atlas_url":null,"mcp":null,"developers":"https://syntology.ai/developers"},"arxiv_metadata":null,"syntology_extracted_results":null}